The Reserve Bank on Friday said food price uncertainties continue to weigh on the inflation trajectory going forward, even as it retained 4.5 per cent retail inflation projection for the current fiscal.
In its first bi-monthly monetary policy for current fiscal, the RBI said notwithstanding the cut in petrol and diesel prices in mid-March 2024, the recent uptick in crude oil prices needs to be closely monitored.
Continuing geopolitical tensions also pose upside risk to commodity prices and supply chains, RBI said.
“Assuming a normal monsoon, CPI inflation for 2024-25 is projected at 4.5 per cent,” RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said.
Although RBI retained the full year inflation projection, it tweaked the forecasts for the quarter.
RBI forecast April-June quarter inflation at 4.9 per cent and in September quarter at 3.8 per cent.
For December and March quarters, inflation is projected at 4.6 per cent and 4.7 per cent, respectively.
The RBI said that deflation in fuel is likely to deepen in the near term, following the cut in LPG prices in March.