Will Oli’s stance on the BRI and his decision to prioritise China over India define his political legacy or deepen Nepal’s internal divides?
In Kathmandu, I observed that Nepal Prime Minister KP Oli’s visit to China has become a hot potato in the chilly Kathmandu valley. The China visit is being portrayed by his Unified Marxist Leninist Party (UML)-led coalition government as a bold initiative by Oli to resolve the long-pending BRI Implementation plan. The BRI Framework Agreement 2017 signed by Nepal figured during the maiden visit of President Xi Jinping in 2019 when Xi announced NC Rs 60 bn in grants under BRI. Since 2008, China has announced NC Rs 80 bn in grants. It seems the government could not use the aid for projects under BRI due to some issues.
Several delegations from both countries have interacted over the BRI Implementation plan for a long but the plan has not been signed.
Oli last visited China in 2016 after the Indian blockade and signed several agreements including energy trade but almost none has materialised. China is insisting that BRI projects that were truncated at Beijing’s request from 35 to 9 be under loan whereas Nepal, especially Nepali Congress, the senior coalition partner, wants them under grant. There were fears Oli might sign in to please the Chinese which resulted in considerable squabbling between them. A high-level task force of the two parties has been meeting to arrive at a consensus. Opposition lawmakers wanted all the agreements signed so far to be made public and discussed in Parliament and with civil society. At a UML meeting, Oli recently announced he would not sign BRI for the sake of coalition unity.